Day 5 Qualification Scenarios

22.08.2014

EUROBASKET 2015 QR

9. Mateusz Ponitka (Poland)
Mateusz Ponitka and Poland will try to qualify by winning Group C

Sunday night could find a number of teams celebrating a berth at EuroBasket 2015, upon the conclusion of the fifth day of action in the 2nd Qualifying Round.

The winner of each one of the seven qualification groups, as well as the six best second-placed teams, will punch their ticket to next summer's big event.

Two of the seven Qualifying Round groups (Group A and Group G) consist of three (rather than four) teams so, in order to determine the six best second-placed teams, their results against the team that will finish in fourth place in groups B through F will be discounted.

Therefore, at this stage of the competition, a second-place finish with a 2-2 record (after the deduction of the discounted results) cannot be a guarantee of qualification.

That is because going into Day 6, there will be at least one team in each group still capable of claiming second place on Day 6 with that W/L record, so goal average will come into play.

Keeping all these parameters in mind, we break down the possible scenarios for each contender ahead of the Sunday encounters.

GROUP A

Current Standings: Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0; Iceland 2-1; Great Britain 0-3

In case they win their home game against Great Britain on Sunday, Bosnia and Herzegovina will improve to 3-0 and qualify to the EuroBasket, although first place in the group will only be determined on the final day of action, in the game between Dusko Ivanovic's team and Iceland.

GROUP B

Current Standings: Israel 3-1; Netherlands 3-1; Montenegro 2-2; Bulgaria 0-4

Should they win on Sunday, by any margin, Israel will improve to 4-1 and qualify to the EuroBasket as first in the group, regardless of the results in the remaining games. In case that the Netherlands defeat Israel, and despite the fact both teams stand at 3-1 at the moment, the Dutch do not secure qualification yet. Montenegro will exit the race in the event they lose at Bulgaria and the Dutch beat Israel. Bulgaria are already out of contention.

GROUP C

Current Standings: Poland 3-1; Austria 3-1; Germany 2-2; Luxembourg 0-4

Neither of the group leaders, Poland and Austria, are in a position to celebrate a ticket to the EuroBasket on Sunday, even if they win their respective games. For Germany however their clash with Austria is a must-win game as they will be eliminated from the race in case of defeat. Luxembourg are already out of contention.

14. Maxime De Zeeuw (Belgium)
Maxime De Zeeuw and Belgium will try to qualify by winning Group D

GROUP D

Current Standings: Belgium 3-1; F.Y.R. of Macedonia 3-1; Belarus 2-2; Denmark 0-4

Should they win on the road against Belarus, Belgium will secure, at the very least, a second-place finish with a 3-1 record (after discounting their win against Denmark) and will therefore qualify to the EuroBasket. F.Y.R. of Macedonia however are in a similar situation to that of the Netherlands in Group B and, even if they win on Sunday against Denmark, they are still not safely through. Belarus need to beat Belgium, otherwise they exit the race. Denmark will finish in fourth place even if they win on Sunday and then win again on Day 6.

GROUP E

Current Standings: Czech Republic 3-1; Hungary 3-1; Georgia 2-2; Portugal 0-4

Neither of the two group leaders can secure qualification on Sunday, even if they both win their respective games. However, a Hungary win at Georgia would mean that the Georgians exit the race and the top-two spots are reserved for the Czechs and the Hungarians, who clash between them on Day 6. Georgia therefore need to win on Sunday to maintain their options. Portugal are already eliminated from contention for a top-two finish.

GROUP F

Current Standings: Latvia 4-0; Romania 3-1; Sweden 1-3; Slovak Republic 0-4

Latvia are not in vain the only undefeated team in a four-team group, as they will punch their ticket to the EuroBasket in case they extend their winning streak to five games on Sunday, albeit not necessarily as first in the group. Should Romania beat Sweden on the road, they do not secure qualification but they do knock the Swedes out of the race and set up a decisive match-up with Latvia on Day 6. Sweden therefore need to win on Sunday to stay alive but even in this case they would also need results in other groups to go their way in order to maintain qualification options going into Day 6.

GROUP G

Current Standings: Italy 2-0; Russia 1-2; Switzerland 1-2

Italy will claim first place in the group and punch their ticket to the EuroBasket in case they defeat Russia on Sunday. Russia will obviously stay in the race if they win against Italy but, in case of a loss they are not automatically eliminated from contention. If they lose on Sunday and finish on a 1-3 record, Russia would still maintain some hopes to go through, provided that Italy defeat Switzerland on Day 6 and Sweden clinches second place in Group F.


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