|18 July 2012|
Serbia, Germany and Slovenia are through to the U20 European Championship Quarter-Finals but three teams in Group E and five in Group F are battling it out for the remaining tickets on the final day of the Second Round
|Serbia have locked the top spot and Germany the second in Group E, with France, Russia and Greece facing off for the two remaining quarter-final spots|
GROUP E FINAL DAY SCENARIOS
Serbia can head into the final day's game against Russia without any pressure. No one can take away the Group E top spot from them as they have the head-to-head advantage over Germany.
Germany can also rest assured about their position. They are guaranteed the second place in the group, as they have beaten all the teams that could catch them at 3-1, even if they lose to Ukraine in the last game.
Things get more complicated from here on, as one of France, Russia and Greece will finish outside the four quarter-final spots, depending on the results of the final day.
A victory against Greece would see France finish third. However, if they lose they are in danger of being eliminated. For that to happen, Russia would need to beat Serbia.
However, if both France and Russia lose there would be a three-way tie, between these two and Greece.
In that scenario, France can lose by up to 10 points and still finish third, but in the unlikely case they lose by 37 or more, they would find themselves out of the quarter-finals, .
For Russia, a victory against Serbia would mean a definite place in the next round. In this case, Russia would need France to lose to Greece to grab the third spot, otherwise the Russians would be fourth.
However, if a Russian loss is followed by Greece defeating France, this would cause the three-way tie to occur, in which Russia would need France to lose by 37 points or more to qualify.
Greece only need to defeat France to reach the quarter-final stage.
GROUP F FINAL DAY SCENARIOS
|With the only exception of group leaders Slovenia, any team in Group F could miss out on the Quarter-Finals, including reigning champions Spain|
Slovenia can relax and enjoy not having to fight for a quarter-final spot on the final day. The hosts of the U20 European Championship have a clean 4-0 record and cannot be caught even if they lose their last game to Spain.
However, the remaining five teams - Spain, Turkey, Italy, Latvia and Lithuania - all have a chance of making the last eight, if the results go their way.
If all three teams that stand at 2-2 going into the final day (Spain, Turkey and Italy) win, Spain would have the best result in the three-way tie and finish second in the group, Turkey would be third and Italy would be fourth.
If Spain lose while Italy and Turkey win, the Spaniards would finish fourth, with Turkey getting the second spot and Italy finishing third.
Things get much more complicated if at least one of these three teams loses.
If Turkey win and Spain and Italy lose, there will be a three-way tie between Latvia, Spain and Italy. In this scenario, if Latvia get a win by at least 8 points, Italy are out.
If both Spain and Turkey lose and Italy win, there will be a three-way tie between Lithuania, Spain and Turkey, in which Turkey miss out and Lithuania advance as the third seed.
If both Italy and Spain win and Turkey lose, the Turks would be out of the tournament and Lithuania would take the last spot.
If Spain win and Turkey and Italy both lose, there will be a four-way tie between Lithuania, Italy, Turkey and Latvia, with the two teams with the best goal differential among the four (remains to be seen) heading through to the quarter-finals.
However, there is a possibility of a five-way tie, if Turkey, Spain and Italy all lose.
No matter what the number of teams in the same position is though, the tie-breaking criteria remain first the head-to head record and then the head-to-head goal differential.
Lithuania and Latvia definetely need a win to keep their chances alive and will have to rely on point difference in what can be a three-way, a four-way or even a five-way tie to book a place in the next round.